Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 21.763208 26.171312 31.045363 36.807150 43.403812 50.691683 59.322306
2025-02-23 15.055193 20.736939 27.695182 36.721917 47.990056 61.454572 78.609193
2025-03-02 11.056526 17.017191 24.936804 35.968786 50.647306 69.196017 94.054745
2025-03-09 8.641856 14.660748 23.237069 35.911791 53.666924 77.112595 109.781649
2025-03-16 6.396439 11.985529 20.526463 33.895174 53.557526 80.601306 119.641631
2025-03-23 5.443307 11.068716 20.164373 35.059013 57.801810 90.059060 137.866614
2025-03-30 4.369581 9.699554 18.845204 34.533521 59.410177 95.786791 151.106288
2025-04-06 3.895373 9.289603 18.998302 36.271979 64.473748 106.682274 172.128363
2025-04-13 2.898046 7.639558 16.751178 33.776420 62.662150 107.219239 178.050349
2025-04-20 2.492549 7.097951 16.396970 34.412673 65.843899 115.386580 195.545501
2025-04-27 2.184867 6.695881 16.235855 35.343009 69.531512 124.473321 214.772114
2025-05-04 1.936823 6.371809 16.172598 36.420934 73.505047 134.162000 235.278922
2025-05-11 1.656472 5.939652 15.914910 37.287278 77.498480 144.613321 258.313942
2025-05-18 1.340338 5.320138 15.167906 37.153563 79.778212 152.522449 277.947738
2025-05-25 1.048317 4.654897 14.181023 36.390317 80.806783 158.354400 294.467661
2025-06-01 0.850285 4.196670 13.582084 36.332596 83.099097 166.391660 314.867007
2025-06-08 0.610800 3.475155 12.163460 34.296790 81.389131 167.355618 323.533698
2025-06-15 0.532568 3.317638 12.186453 35.471722 86.046496 179.727097 351.827025
2025-06-22 0.416175 2.938294 11.513013 34.941229 87.211444 185.874008 369.735986
2025-06-29 0.377964 2.890385 11.787410 36.696175 93.179244 201.004997 403.662422
2025-07-06 0.255150 2.337041 10.397779 34.176898 89.982150 199.064899 407.751450
2025-07-13 0.214428 2.193004 10.268035 34.819230 93.572111 209.955860 434.825566
2025-07-20 0.184244 2.090195 10.253522 35.758414 97.866851 222.358906 465.006087